APG vs BLD

APi Group Corporation vs TopBuild Corp. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — BLD scores higher on quality with 9.8/10 vs APG's 9.5/10. APG trades at $41.77 while BLD trades at $407.07. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

APG

Engineering & Construction
APi Group Corporation
Quality
9.5
out of 10
Value Trap
17
SAFE
Price
$41.77
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

BLD

Engineering & Construction
TopBuild Corp.
Quality
9.8
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$407.07
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
APG
Quality Score 9.5/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
BLD
Bayesian DCF sees +0.5% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

APG vs BLD — Fair Value Comparison

APG
$0$16$33$49 Price$41.77 Bayesian …$17.82 (-57.3%) Earnings …$1.35 (-96.8%)
BLD
$0$161$322$483 Price$407.07 Bayesian …$409.01 (+0.5%) Earnings …$182.38 (-55.2%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType APG Fair ValueAPG Upside BLD Fair ValueBLD Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $17.82 -57.3% $409.01 +0.5%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $1.35 -96.8% $182.38 -55.2%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

APG vs BLD — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

BLD scores higher with a 9.8/10 quality rating vs APG's 9.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do APG and BLD Valuations Compare?

At $41.77, APG trades +57.3% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $17.82, while BLD at $407.07 trades +0.5% below its estimate of $409.01. APG shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: APG vs BLD

APG earns a Quality of Company score of 9.5/10 compared to BLD's 9.8/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: APG vs BLD

APG carries a SAFE value trap risk (17/100) while BLD shows SAFE risk (18/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Engineering & Construction

Both APG and BLD operate in Engineering & Construction, which has 53 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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