AMTD vs ARDC

AMTD IDEA Group vs Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-01 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — AMTD scores higher on quality with 2.1/10 vs ARDC's 1.7/10. AMTD trades at $1.02 while ARDC trades at $12.71. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

AMTD

Asset Management
AMTD IDEA Group
Quality
2.1
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$1.02
Last close
Models
6/13
Active
VS

ARDC

Asset Management
Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation
Quality
1.7
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$12.71
Last close
Models
6/13
Active
AMTD
Earnings Power Value sees +379.3% upside
Quality 2.1/10 — below average
ARDC
2 models active
Quality 1.7/10 — below average

AMTD vs ARDC — Fair Value Comparison

AMTD
$0$2$4$6 Price$1.02 Bayesian …$0.28 (-72.6%) Earnings …$4.98 (+379.3%)
ARDC
$0$5$10$15 Price$12.71 Bayesian …$3.37 (-73.5%) Markov DDM$11.80 (-7.5%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType AMTD Fair ValueAMTD Upside ARDC Fair ValueARDC Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $0.28 -72.6% $3.37 -73.5%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $4.98 +379.3%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $11.80 -7.5%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

AMTD vs ARDC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

AMTD scores higher with a 2.1/10 quality rating vs ARDC's 1.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do AMTD and ARDC Valuations Compare?

At $1.02, AMTD trades +72.6% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.28, while ARDC at $12.71 trades +73.5% above its estimate of $3.37. ARDC shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: AMTD vs ARDC

AMTD earns a Quality of Company score of 2.1/10 compared to ARDC's 1.7/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: AMTD vs ARDC

Review the value trap analysis for both AMTD and ARDC to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Asset Management

Both AMTD and ARDC operate in Asset Management, which has 21 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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