Is ALDX or ALMS more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. (ALDX) and Alumis Inc. (ALMS) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ALDX has a Quality of Company score of 4.5/10 while ALMS scores 4.6/10.

Which is a better buy — ALDX or ALMS?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ALDX and ALMS valuations compare?

ALDX at $1.75 and ALMS at $21.60 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ALDX vs ALMS Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ALDX

Biotechnology

Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc.

Quality

4.5

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$1.75

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

ALMS

Biotechnology

Alumis Inc.

Quality

4.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$21.60

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ALDX Fair Value	ALDX Upside	ALMS Fair Value	ALMS Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.96	-45.3%	$4.87	-77.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$11.35	-54.5%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$0.07	-95.3%	$0.24	-98.9%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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ALDX vs ALMS — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ALMS scores higher with a 4.6/10 quality rating vs ALDX's 4.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. (ALDX) and Alumis Inc. (ALMS) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ALDX currently trades at $1.75 with a QOC of 4.5/10, while ALMS trades at $21.60 with a QOC of 4.6/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).