Is AGRO or BG more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) and Bunge Limited (BG) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. AGRO has a Quality of Company score of 2.1/10 while BG scores 6.4/10.

Which is a better buy — AGRO or BG?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do AGRO and BG valuations compare?

AGRO at $12.63 and BG at $123.70 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

AGRO vs BG Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

AGRO

Farm Products

Adecoagro S.A.

Quality

2.1

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$12.63

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

BG

Farm Products

Bunge Limited

Quality

6.4

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$123.70

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	AGRO Fair Value	AGRO Upside	BG Fair Value	BG Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$3.56	-71.8%	$21.60	-82.1%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$1.29	-90.7%	$35.58	-71.2%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$2.80	-77.8%	$626.98	+406.9%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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AGRO vs BG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

BG scores higher with a 6.4/10 quality rating vs AGRO's 2.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) and Bunge Limited (BG) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

AGRO currently trades at $12.63 with a QOC of 2.1/10, while BG trades at $123.70 with a QOC of 6.4/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).