AGNCP vs ARR

AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit vs ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-01 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — AGNCP scores higher on quality with 7.0/10 vs ARR's 6.8/10. AGNCP trades at $25.23 while ARR trades at $17.13. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

AGNCP

REIT - Mortgage
AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit
Quality
7.0
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$25.23
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

ARR

REIT - Mortgage
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
Quality
6.8
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$17.13
Last close
Models
10/13
Active
AGNCP
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models
ARR
Bayesian DCF sees +0.6% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

AGNCP vs ARR — Fair Value Comparison

AGNCP
$0$10$20$30 Price$25.23 Bayesian …$7.26 (-71.2%) Earnings …$2.93 (-88.4%)
ARR
$0$7$14$20 Price$17.13 Bayesian …$17.23 (+0.6%) Earnings …$2.45 (-85.7%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType AGNCP Fair ValueAGNCP Upside ARR Fair ValueARR Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $7.26 -71.2% $17.23 +0.6%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $2.93 -88.4% $2.45 -85.7%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

AGNCP vs ARR — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

AGNCP scores higher with a 7.0/10 quality rating vs ARR's 6.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do AGNCP and ARR Valuations Compare?

At $25.23, AGNCP trades +71.2% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $7.26, while ARR at $17.13 trades +0.6% below its estimate of $17.23. AGNCP shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: AGNCP vs ARR

AGNCP earns a Quality of Company score of 7.0/10 compared to ARR's 6.8/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: AGNCP vs ARR

AGNCP carries a SAFE value trap risk (6/100) while ARR shows SAFE risk (6/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in REIT - Mortgage

Both AGNCP and ARR operate in REIT - Mortgage, which has 14 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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