AGNCN vs ARI

AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit vs Apollo Commercial Real Estate F — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-01 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — ARI scores higher on quality with 8.0/10 vs AGNCN's 7.0/10. AGNCN trades at $25.89 while ARI trades at $10.93. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

AGNCN

REIT - Mortgage
AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit
Quality
7.0
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$25.89
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
VS

ARI

REIT - Mortgage
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F
Quality
8.0
out of 10
Value Trap
16
SAFE
Price
$10.93
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
AGNCN
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models
ARI
Bayesian DCF sees +29.7% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

AGNCN vs ARI — Fair Value Comparison

AGNCN
$0$10$20$31 Price$25.89 Bayesian …$17.44 (-32.6%) Earnings …$7.04 (-72.8%)
ARI
$0$6$11$17 Price$10.93 Bayesian …$14.18 (+29.7%) Earnings …$1.25 (-88.6%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType AGNCN Fair ValueAGNCN Upside ARI Fair ValueARI Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $17.44 -32.6% $14.18 +29.7%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $7.04 -72.8% $1.25 -88.6%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

AGNCN vs ARI — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

ARI scores higher with a 8.0/10 quality rating vs AGNCN's 7.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do AGNCN and ARI Valuations Compare?

At $25.89, AGNCN trades +32.6% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $17.44, while ARI at $10.93 trades +29.7% below its estimate of $14.18. AGNCN shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: AGNCN vs ARI

AGNCN earns a Quality of Company score of 7.0/10 compared to ARI's 8.0/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: AGNCN vs ARI

AGNCN carries a SAFE value trap risk (6/100) while ARI shows SAFE risk (16/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in REIT - Mortgage

Both AGNCN and ARI operate in REIT - Mortgage, which has 14 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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