Is ACRE or AGNCN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Ares Commercial Real Estate Cor (ACRE) and AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit (AGNCN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ACRE has a Quality of Company score of 5.7/10 while AGNCN scores 7.0/10.

Which is a better buy — ACRE or AGNCN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ACRE and AGNCN valuations compare?

ACRE at $4.94 and AGNCN at $25.79 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ACRE vs AGNCN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ACRE

REIT - Mortgage

Ares Commercial Real Estate Cor

Quality

5.7

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$4.94

Last close

Models

8/13

Active

AGNCN

REIT - Mortgage

AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit

Quality

7.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$25.79

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ACRE Fair Value	ACRE Upside	AGNCN Fair Value	AGNCN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$2.44	-50.6%	$17.44	-32.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$7.04	-72.7%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$5.97	+20.8%	$28.60	+10.9%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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ACRE vs AGNCN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

AGNCN scores higher with a 7.0/10 quality rating vs ACRE's 5.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Ares Commercial Real Estate Cor (ACRE) and AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit (AGNCN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ACRE currently trades at $4.94 with a QOC of 5.7/10, while AGNCN trades at $25.79 with a QOC of 7.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).