Is ACGL or AEG more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) and Aegon Ltd. New York Registry Sh (AEG) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ACGL has a Quality of Company score of 10.0/10 while AEG scores 1.9/10.

Which is a better buy — ACGL or AEG?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ACGL and AEG valuations compare?

ACGL at $90.67 and AEG at $8.43 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ACGL vs AEG Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ACGL

Insurance - Diversified

Arch Capital Group Ltd.

Quality

10.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$90.67

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

AEG

Insurance - Diversified

Aegon Ltd. New York Registry Sh

Quality

1.9

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$8.43

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ACGL Fair Value	ACGL Upside	AEG Fair Value	AEG Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$171.45	+89.1%	$2.81	-66.7%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$169.79	+87.3%	$3.63	-54.7%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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ACGL vs AEG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ACGL scores higher with a 10.0/10 quality rating vs AEG's 1.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) and Aegon Ltd. New York Registry Sh (AEG) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ACGL currently trades at $90.67 with a QOC of 10.0/10, while AEG trades at $8.43 with a QOC of 1.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).