Is AAL or ALK more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL) and Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. AAL has a Quality of Company score of 6.5/10 while ALK scores 7.1/10.

Which is a better buy — AAL or ALK?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do AAL and ALK valuations compare?

AAL at $14.65 and ALK at $46.59 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

AAL vs ALK Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

AAL

Airlines

American Airlines Group, Inc.

Quality

6.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$14.65

Last close

Models

8/13

Active

ALK

Airlines

Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Quality

7.1

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$46.59

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	AAL Fair Value	AAL Upside	ALK Fair Value	ALK Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	—	—	$120.72	+159.1%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	—	—	$16.79	-64.0%
First Chicago	Scenario	$14.25	+4.8%	$82.87	+77.9%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$15.80	+7.8%	$59.50	+27.7%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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AAL vs ALK — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ALK scores higher with a 7.1/10 quality rating vs AAL's 6.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL) and Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

AAL currently trades at $14.65 with a QOC of 6.5/10, while ALK trades at $46.59 with a QOC of 7.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).