What Is Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $47.03. Trading at its current price of $79.99, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 12 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -41.2%. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $87.94 (+9.9%), versus Dynamic NAV at $4.59 (-94.3%). This +104.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About TPB?
13 of 13 models are currently active for TPB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TPB's intrinsic value at $57.84, implying -27.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does TPB Rank in Tobacco Products?
Among 1 Tobacco Products stocks, TPB ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is TPB a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TPB a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Turning Point Brands, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Turning Point Brands, Inc. scores 7.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +104.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every TPB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across TPB's 13 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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