Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) Fair Value 2026

TPB · Tobacco ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) trades at $83.93, versus a $38.42 median fair value across its 11 active models — 54.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $42.12.

Key Facts

Ticker
TPB
Price
$83.93
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +1.6% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $38.42, 54.2% below the current price of $83.93. Estimates range from $3.61 to $85.29. TPB scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TPB’s -54.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Turning Point Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TPB?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($83.93)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $42.12 -49.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.42 -54.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $37.82 -54.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $85.29 +1.6%
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What Is TPB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $3.61 to $85.29

CirclFi's 11 active models place Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) between $3.61 and $85.29 per share, a spread of 213% of the median. The median of that range — $38.42 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TPB, against a current price of $83.93.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$3.61median $38.42$85.29
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$3.61
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$85.29
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TPB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TPB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $38.42. Trading at its current price of $83.93, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -54.2%. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $85.29 (+1.6%), versus Markov DDM at $3.61 (-95.7%). This +97.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TPB?

11 of 13 models are currently active for TPB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TPB is $38.42 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $42.12 on its own, implying -49.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TPB Rank in Tobacco?

Among 17 Tobacco stocks, TPB ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places TPB in the top tier.

Turning Point Brands, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TPB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TPB a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Turning Point Brands, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Turning Point Brands, Inc. scores 8.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +97.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TPB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TPB's 11 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Turning Point Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Tobacco Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Tobacco stocks with 13-model coverage

GRLFGreen Leaf Innovations, Inc.QOC 3.6RLXRLX Technology Inc.QOC 8.3GNLNGreenlane Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.1PMPhilip Morris International Inc.QOC 8.1HCMCHealthier Choices Management Corp.QOC 4.3UVVUniversal CorporationQOC 7.9MOAltria Group, Inc.QOC 7.7PYYXPyxus International, Inc.QOC 6.6KAVLKaival Brands Innovations Group, Inc.QOC 4.6

Read investment analysis: GRLF · RLX · GNLN · PM · HCMC · UVV · MO · PYYX · KAVL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TPB?

7 companies across all industries closest to TPB’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

CSVCarriage Services, Inc.QOC 8.8BBarrick Mining CorporationQOC 8.8DVNDevon Energy CorporationQOC 8.8OIIOceaneering International, Inc.QOC 8.8SPGIS&P Global Inc.QOC 8.8TCOMTrip.com Group LimitedQOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CSV · B · DVN · OII · SPGI · TCOM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Turning Point Brands, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB)'s intrinsic value at $38.42 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.61 to $85.29. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $42.12 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TPB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $83.93, 1 of 11 active models suggest TPB may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $38.42, 54.2% below the current price of $83.93 — a consensus view that TPB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s business model in Tobacco.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for TPB?

Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TPB?

CirclFi analyzes TPB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TPB?

Of the 11 models currently active on TPB, First Chicago is the most bullish at $85.29 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $3.61. CirclFi's published fair value for TPB is the median of that range, $38.42, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 213% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TPB a value trap in 2026?

Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) has a median fair value of $38.42 — 54.2% below the current price of $83.93 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TPB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TPB valuation
  • Financial statements: Turning Point Brands, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001290677) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TPB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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