Pool Corporation (POOL) Fair Value 2026

POOL · Wholesale-Misc Durable Goods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Pool Corporation (POOL) trades at $210.82, approximately 27% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $287.57. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
POOL
Price
$210.82
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +45.6% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($210.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$287.57 +36.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$114.78 -45.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$242.64 +15.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$307.01 +45.6%

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What Is Pool Corporation (POOL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Pool Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $210.82. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $200.51 (-4.9% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $307.01 (+45.6%), versus EROIC at $56.87 (-73.0%). This +118.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About POOL?

11 of 13 models are currently active for POOL. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates POOL's intrinsic value at $287.57, implying +36.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does POOL Rank in Wholesale-Misc Durable Goods?

Among 2 Wholesale-Misc Durable Goods stocks, POOL ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places POOL in the top tier.

Pool Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is POOL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns POOL a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Pool Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Pool Corporation earns a quality score of 9.2/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +118.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every POOL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across POOL's 11 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Pool Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Frequently Asked Questions About Pool Corporation

What is Pool Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Pool Corporation (POOL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $287.57. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is POOL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $210.82, 6 of 11 active models suggest POOL may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Pool Corporation's business model in Wholesale-Misc Durable Goods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for POOL?

Pool Corporation's QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on POOL?

CirclFi analyzes POOL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is POOL a value trap in 2026?

Pool Corporation's Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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