Pool Corporation (POOL) Fair Value 2026

POOL · Industrial Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Pool Corporation (POOL) trades at $186.06, versus a $175.26 median fair value across its 10 active models — 5.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $179.66.

Key Facts

Ticker
POOL
Price
$186.06
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Pool Corporation (POOL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Pool Corporation (POOL) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $175.26, within 5.8% of the current price of $186.06. Estimates range from $59.93 to $275.14. POOL scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. POOL’s -5.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Industrial Distribution sector median is -33.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Pool Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give POOL?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($186.06)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $179.66 -3.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $124.36 -33.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $170.85 -8.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $59.93 -67.8%
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What Is POOL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $59.93 to $275.14

CirclFi's 10 active models place Pool Corporation (POOL) between $59.93 and $275.14 per share, a spread of 123% of the median. The median of that range — $175.26 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for POOL, against a current price of $186.06.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$59.93median $175.26$275.14
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$59.93
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$275.14
Model agreement4 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for POOL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on POOL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Pool Corporation (POOL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Pool Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $186.06. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $175.26 (-5.8% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $275.14 (+47.9%), versus EROIC at $59.93 (-67.8%). This +115.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About POOL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for POOL. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for POOL is $175.26 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $179.66 on its own, implying -3.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does POOL Rank in Industrial Distribution?

Among 23 Industrial Distribution stocks, POOL ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places POOL in the top tier.

Pool Corporation's positioning within the Industrial Distribution segment means that margin expansion trajectory plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including reshoring and supply chain localization — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is POOL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns POOL a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Pool Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Pool Corporation earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +115.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every POOL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across POOL's 10 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Pool Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Industrial Distribution Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Industrial Distribution stocks with 13-model coverage

FERGFerguson Enterprises Inc.QOC 8.2SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.QOC 8.0DXPEDXP Enterprises, Inc.QOC 8.3MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.QOC 7.9WCCWESCO International, Inc.QOC 8.3REZIResideo Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.7EVIEVI Industries, Inc.QOC 7.5WXMWF International LimitedQOC 6.2FASTFastenal CompanyQOC 8.9GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.QOC 9.3AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: FERG · SITE · DXPE · MSM · WCC · REZI · EVI · WXM · FAST · GWW · AIT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to POOL?

7 companies across all industries closest to POOL’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.QOC 8.1SKWDSkyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.1HITHealth In Tech, Inc.QOC 8.1BAMBrookfield Asset Management Ltd.QOC 8.1CMICummins Inc.QOC 8.1RNSTRenasant CorporationQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NLY · SKWD · HIT · BAM · CMI · RNST · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Pool Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Pool Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Pool Corporation (POOL)'s intrinsic value at $175.26 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $59.93 to $275.14. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $179.66 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is POOL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $186.06, 4 of 10 active models suggest POOL may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $175.26, within 5.8% of the current price of $186.06 — a consensus view that POOL is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Pool Corporation's business model in Industrial Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for POOL?

Pool Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on POOL?

CirclFi analyzes POOL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on POOL?

Of the 10 models currently active on POOL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $275.14 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $59.93. CirclFi's published fair value for POOL is the median of that range, $175.26, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 123% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is POOL a value trap in 2026?

Pool Corporation's Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Pool Corporation (POOL) has a median fair value of $175.26 — within 5.8% of the current price of $186.06 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/POOL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this POOL valuation
  • Financial statements: Pool Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000945841) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for POOL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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