Innventure, Inc. (INV) Fair Value 2026

INV · Blank Checks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Innventure, Inc. (INV) trades at $4.46, approximately 1821% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.23. QOC: 5.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 4/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
INV
Price
$4.46
Quality Score
5.4/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: 4 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.46)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.23 -94.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $1.25 -72.1%

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What Is Innventure, Inc. (INV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Innventure, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.03, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $4.47. With 4 out of 4 models flagging downside (-76.8% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $2.34 (-47.5%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.23 (-94.8%). This +47.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Innventure, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About INV?

4 of 13 models are currently active for INV. All 4 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates INV's intrinsic value at $0.23, implying -94.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does INV Rank in Blank Checks?

Among 206 Blank Checks stocks, INV ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Blank Checks Stocks →

Innventure, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is INV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns INV a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for Innventure, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Innventure, Inc. is rated at 5.4/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +47.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every INV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across INV's 4 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Innventure, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Read investment analysis: FSHP · OTGA · VNME · NMP · NMPAR

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Frequently Asked Questions About Innventure, Inc.

What is Innventure, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Innventure, Inc. (INV) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.23. The Quality of Company score is 5.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is INV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.46, 0 of 4 active models suggest INV may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Innventure, Inc.'s business model in Blank Checks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.4 mean for INV?

Innventure, Inc.'s QOC of 5.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on INV?

CirclFi analyzes INV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is INV a value trap in 2026?

Innventure, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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