Graf Global Corp. (GRAF) Fair Value 2026

GRAF · Blank Checks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Graf Global Corp. (GRAF) trades at $10.80, approximately 874% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.11. QOC: 5.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GRAF
Price
$10.80
Quality Score
5.1/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
 $1.11 -89.7%
Earnings Power Value
Low Conviction
 $1.44 -86.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $5.71 -47.1%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $2.40 -77.8%

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What Is Graf Global Corp. (GRAF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Graf Global Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $3.37. Trading at its current price of $10.80, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -68.8%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $9.87 (-8.6%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $1.11 (-89.7%). This +81.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Graf Global Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About GRAF?

11 of 13 models are currently active for GRAF. All 11 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates GRAF's intrinsic value at $1.11, implying -89.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GRAF Rank in Blank Checks?

Among 206 Blank Checks stocks, GRAF ranks #47 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.1 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Blank Checks Stocks →

Graf Global Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GRAF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GRAF a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Graf Global Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Graf Global Corp. earns a quality score of 5.1/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +81.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GRAF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GRAF's 11 active models, average confidence is 21%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Graf Global Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Read investment analysis: FSHP · OTGA · VNME · NMP · NMPAR

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Frequently Asked Questions About Graf Global Corp.

What is Graf Global Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Graf Global Corp. (GRAF) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.11. The Quality of Company score is 5.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GRAF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.80, 0 of 11 active models suggest GRAF may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Graf Global Corp.'s business model in Blank Checks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.1 mean for GRAF?

Graf Global Corp.'s QOC of 5.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GRAF?

CirclFi analyzes GRAF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GRAF a value trap in 2026?

Graf Global Corp.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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