Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation (AENT) Fair Value 2026

AENT · Entertainment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (41/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation (AENT) trades at $4.60, versus a $5.09 median fair value across its 9 active models — 10.7% above the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 41/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.18.

Key Facts

Ticker
AENT
Price
$4.60
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
41/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +32.3% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 41 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation (AENT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation (AENT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $5.09, 10.7% above the current price of $4.60. Estimates range from $0.18 to $20.19. AENT scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 41/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. AENT’s +10.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Entertainment sector median is -27.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AENT?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.18 -96.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.11 -10.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.52 -45.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.09 +32.3%
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What Is AENT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.18 to $20.19

CirclFi's 9 active models place Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation (AENT) between $0.18 and $20.19 per share, a spread of 393% of the median. The median of that range — $5.09 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AENT, against a current price of $4.60.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$0.18median $5.09$20.19
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.18
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$20.19
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AENT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AENT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation (AENT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $5.09, suggesting a +10.7% median upside from the current price of $4.60. While 5 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $20.19 (+338.8%), versus Bayesian DCF at $0.18 (-96.0%). This +434.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AENT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for AENT. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AENT is $5.09 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.18 on its own, implying -96.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AENT Rank in Entertainment?

Among 50 Entertainment stocks, AENT ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

The Entertainment sector introduces analytical considerations specific to media and communications company businesses. For Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation, metrics like spectrum holdings value provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AENT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AENT a score of 41/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation scores 6.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +434.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AENT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AENT's 9 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Entertainment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Entertainment stocks with 13-model coverage

CNKCinemark Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4IQiQIYI, Inc.QOC 6.3PLAYDave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.5MANUManchester United plcQOC 6.1HUYAHUYA Inc.QOC 6.5TOONKartoon Studios Inc.QOC 6.1RDIBReading International, Inc.QOC 5.4IMAXIMAX CorporationQOC 9.0VSNTVersant Media Group, Inc.QOC 7.7NFLXNetflix, Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: CNK · IQ · PLAY · MANU · HUYA · TOON · RDIB · IMAX · VSNT · NFLX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AENT?

7 companies across all industries closest to AENT’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

KROKronos Worldwide, Inc.QOC 6.4TOPPToppoint Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4AWHLAspira Women's Health Inc.QOC 6.4SEPNSepterna, Inc.QOC 6.3AVALGrupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.QOC 6.4LCUTLifetime Brands, Inc.QOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KRO · TOPP · AWHL · SEPN · AVAL · LCUT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation (AENT)'s intrinsic value at $5.09 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.18 to $20.19. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.18 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AENT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.60, 5 of 9 active models suggest AENT may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $5.09, 10.7% above the current price of $4.60 — a consensus view that AENT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation's business model in Entertainment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for AENT?

Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation's QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AENT?

CirclFi analyzes AENT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AENT?

Of the 9 models currently active on AENT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $20.19 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.18. CirclFi's published fair value for AENT is the median of that range, $5.09, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 393% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AENT a value trap in 2026?

Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation's Value Trap score is 41/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation (AENT) has a median fair value of $5.09 — 10.7% above the current price of $4.60 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AENT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AENT valuation

Market data for AENT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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