Is UAL or ULCC more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) and Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. UAL has a Quality of Company score of 8.4/10 while ULCC scores 6.0/10.

Which is a better buy — UAL or ULCC?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do UAL and ULCC valuations compare?

UAL at $114.80 and ULCC at $6.05 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

UAL vs ULCC Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

UAL

Air Transportation, Scheduled

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

Quality

8.4

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$114.80

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

ULCC

Air Transportation, Scheduled

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.

Quality

6.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$6.05

Last close

Models

8/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	UAL Fair Value	UAL Upside	ULCC Fair Value	ULCC Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$44.46	-61.3%	$1.38	-66.0%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$40.48	-64.7%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$218.88	+90.7%	$1.09	-82.1%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for UAL vs ULCC — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

UAL vs ULCC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

UAL scores higher with a 8.4/10 quality rating vs ULCC's 6.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) and Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

UAL currently trades at $114.80 with a QOC of 8.4/10, while ULCC trades at $6.05 with a QOC of 6.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).