Is TOVX or TPST more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Theriva Biologics, Inc. (TOVX) and Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. TOVX has a Quality of Company score of 4.0/10 while TPST scores 3.2/10.

Which is a better buy — TOVX or TPST?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do TOVX and TPST valuations compare?

TOVX at $0.28 and TPST at $1.53 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

TOVX vs TPST Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

TOVX

Pharmaceutical Preparations

Theriva Biologics, Inc.

Quality

4.0

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$0.28

Last close

Models

8/13

Active

TPST

Pharmaceutical Preparations

Tempest Therapeutics, Inc.

Quality

3.2

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$1.53

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TOVX Fair Value	TOVX Upside	TPST Fair Value	TPST Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.23	-18.8%	$0.34	-78.1%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$0.05	-87.6%	$0.11	-94.8%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$0.20	-28.6%	$5.58	+264.8%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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TOVX vs TPST — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

TOVX scores higher with a 4.0/10 quality rating vs TPST's 3.2/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Theriva Biologics, Inc. (TOVX) and Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

TOVX currently trades at $0.28 with a QOC of 4.0/10, while TPST trades at $1.53 with a QOC of 3.2/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).