Is TM or XPEV more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) and XPeng Inc. (XPEV) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. TM has a Quality of Company score of 1.7/10 while XPEV scores 7.7/10.

Which is a better buy — TM or XPEV?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do TM and XPEV valuations compare?

TM at $189.95 and XPEV at $16.45 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

TM vs XPEV Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

TM

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies

Toyota Motor Corporation

Quality

1.7

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$189.95

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

XPEV

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies

XPeng Inc.

Quality

7.7

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$16.45

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TM Fair Value	TM Upside	XPEV Fair Value	XPEV Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$62.64	-67.0%	$13.20	-19.8%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$87.69	-54.4%	$28.02	+77.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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TM vs XPEV — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

XPEV scores higher with a 7.7/10 quality rating vs TM's 1.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) and XPeng Inc. (XPEV) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

TM currently trades at $189.95 with a QOC of 1.7/10, while XPEV trades at $16.45 with a QOC of 7.7/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).