Is TLPH or TOVX more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Talphera, Inc. (TLPH) and Theriva Biologics, Inc. (TOVX) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. TLPH has a Quality of Company score of 5.6/10 while TOVX scores 4.0/10.

Which is a better buy — TLPH or TOVX?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do TLPH and TOVX valuations compare?

TLPH at $0.82 and TOVX at $0.28 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

TLPH vs TOVX Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

TLPH

Pharmaceutical Preparations

Talphera, Inc.

Quality

5.6

out of 10

Value Trap

WARN

Price

$0.82

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

TOVX

Pharmaceutical Preparations

Theriva Biologics, Inc.

Quality

4.0

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$0.28

Last close

Models

8/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TLPH Fair Value	TLPH Upside	TOVX Fair Value	TOVX Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.26	-68.5%	$0.23	-18.8%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$0.03	-96.6%	$0.05	-87.6%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$0.68	-17.0%	$0.20	-28.6%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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TLPH vs TOVX — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

TLPH scores higher with a 5.6/10 quality rating vs TOVX's 4.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Talphera, Inc. (TLPH) and Theriva Biologics, Inc. (TOVX) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

TLPH currently trades at $0.82 with a QOC of 5.6/10, while TOVX trades at $0.28 with a QOC of 4.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).