STEL vs TCBI

Stellar Bancorp, Inc. vs Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — TCBI scores higher on quality with 8.8/10 vs STEL's 8.1/10. STEL trades at $37.37 while TCBI trades at $99.74. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

STEL

Banks - Regional
Stellar Bancorp, Inc.
Quality
8.1
out of 10
Value Trap
26
LOW
Price
$37.37
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

TCBI

Banks - Regional
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
Quality
8.8
out of 10
Value Trap
12
SAFE
Price
$99.74
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
STEL
Quality Score 8.1/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
TCBI
Earnings Power Value sees +11.5% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

STEL vs TCBI — Fair Value Comparison

STEL
$0$15$29$44 Price$37.37 Bayesian …$20.03 (-46.4%) Earnings …$33.33 (-10.8%)
TCBI
$0$44$88$131 Price$99.74 Bayesian …$73.03 (-26.8%) Earnings …$111.24 (+11.5%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType STEL Fair ValueSTEL Upside TCBI Fair ValueTCBI Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $20.03 -46.4% $73.03 -26.8%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $33.33 -10.8% $111.24 +11.5%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

STEL vs TCBI — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

TCBI scores higher with a 8.8/10 quality rating vs STEL's 8.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do STEL and TCBI Valuations Compare?

At $37.37, STEL trades +46.4% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $20.03, while TCBI at $99.74 trades +26.8% above its estimate of $73.03. STEL shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: STEL vs TCBI

STEL earns a Quality of Company score of 8.1/10 compared to TCBI's 8.8/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: STEL vs TCBI

STEL carries a LOW value trap risk (26/100) while TCBI shows SAFE risk (12/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Banks - Regional

Both STEL and TCBI operate in Banks - Regional, which has 329 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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