OTF vs OWL

Blue Owl Technology Finance Cor vs Blue Owl Capital Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — OWL scores higher on quality with 7.4/10 vs OTF's 5.8/10. OTF trades at $11.05 while OWL trades at $10.07. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

OTF

Asset Management
Blue Owl Technology Finance Cor
Quality
5.8
out of 10
Value Trap
24
SAFE
Price
$11.05
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

OWL

Asset Management
Blue Owl Capital Inc.
Quality
7.4
out of 10
Value Trap
23
SAFE
Price
$10.07
Last close
Models
10/13
Active
OTF
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models
OWL
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models

OTF vs OWL — Fair Value Comparison

OTF
$0$4$9$13 Price$11.05 Bayesian …$4.92 (-54.2%) Earnings …$0.71 (-93.9%)
OWL
$0$4$8$12 Price$10.07 Bayesian …$7.70 (-23.5%) First Chi…$3.40 (-65.7%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType OTF Fair ValueOTF Upside OWL Fair ValueOWL Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $4.92 -54.2% $7.70 -23.5%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $0.71 -93.9%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $8.80 -24.3% $3.40 -65.7%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

OTF vs OWL — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

OWL scores higher with a 7.4/10 quality rating vs OTF's 5.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do OTF and OWL Valuations Compare?

At $11.05, OTF trades +54.2% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $4.92, while OWL at $10.07 trades +23.5% above its estimate of $7.70. OTF shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: OTF vs OWL

OTF earns a Quality of Company score of 5.8/10 compared to OWL's 7.4/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: OTF vs OWL

OTF carries a SAFE value trap risk (24/100) while OWL shows SAFE risk (23/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Asset Management

Both OTF and OWL operate in Asset Management, which has 448 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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