OBK vs ONB

Origin Bancorp, Inc. vs Old National Bancorp — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — ONB scores higher on quality with 8.9/10 vs OBK's 8.5/10. OBK trades at $47.65 while ONB trades at $23.85. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

OBK

Banks - Regional
Origin Bancorp, Inc.
Quality
8.5
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$47.65
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
VS

ONB

Banks - Regional
Old National Bancorp
Quality
8.9
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$23.85
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
OBK
Quality Score 8.5/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
ONB
Quality Score 8.9/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

OBK vs ONB — Fair Value Comparison

OBK
$0$19$37$56 Price$47.65 Bayesian …$37.67 (-20.9%) Earnings …$36.81 (-22.8%)
ONB
$0$9$19$28 Price$23.85 Bayesian …$11.60 (-51.4%) Earnings …$15.89 (-33.4%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType OBK Fair ValueOBK Upside ONB Fair ValueONB Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $37.67 -20.9% $11.60 -51.4%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $36.81 -22.8% $15.89 -33.4%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

OBK vs ONB — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

ONB scores higher with a 8.9/10 quality rating vs OBK's 8.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do OBK and ONB Valuations Compare?

At $47.65, OBK trades +20.9% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $37.67, while ONB at $23.85 trades +51.4% above its estimate of $11.60. ONB shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: OBK vs ONB

OBK earns a Quality of Company score of 8.5/10 compared to ONB's 8.9/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: OBK vs ONB

Review the value trap analysis for both OBK and ONB to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Banks - Regional

Both OBK and ONB operate in Banks - Regional, which has 329 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

2 of 13 MODELS UNLOCKED

You’re comparing 2 models. 11 more have an opinion.

11 hidden models compare OBK vs ONB differently — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more. Some may disagree with the 2 you see above.

11 additional fair values per stock Full confidence breakdown Live terminal — 5,000+ stocks

Bloomberg Terminal: ~$2,000/mo  ·  FactSet: ~$1,000/mo  ·  CirclFi: $0.90/day

See All 13 Models — $0.90/day

We don’t predict prices. We show you what 13 independent mathematical frameworks say a stock is worth — and let you decide.

See all Banks - Regional stocks →