NWG vs ONB

NatWest Group plc vs Old National Bancorp — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — ONB scores higher on quality with 8.9/10 vs NWG's 7.6/10. NWG trades at $16.15 while ONB trades at $23.85. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

NWG

Banks - Regional
NatWest Group plc
Quality
7.6
out of 10
Value Trap
22
SAFE
Price
$16.15
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
VS

ONB

Banks - Regional
Old National Bancorp
Quality
8.9
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$23.85
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
NWG
Earnings Power Value sees +367.9% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
ONB
Quality Score 8.9/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

NWG vs ONB — Fair Value Comparison

NWG
$0$30$59$89 Price$16.15 Bayesian …$68.63 (+324.9%) Earnings …$75.57 (+367.9%)
ONB
$0$9$19$28 Price$23.85 Bayesian …$11.60 (-51.4%) Earnings …$15.89 (-33.4%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType NWG Fair ValueNWG Upside ONB Fair ValueONB Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $68.63 +324.9% $11.60 -51.4%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $75.57 +367.9% $15.89 -33.4%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

NWG vs ONB — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

ONB scores higher with a 8.9/10 quality rating vs NWG's 7.6/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do NWG and ONB Valuations Compare?

At $16.15, NWG trades +324.9% below its Bayesian DCF fair value of $68.63, while ONB at $23.85 trades +51.4% above its estimate of $11.60. NWG shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: NWG vs ONB

NWG earns a Quality of Company score of 7.6/10 compared to ONB's 8.9/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: NWG vs ONB

NWG carries a SAFE value trap risk (22/100) while ONB shows SAFE risk (18/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Banks - Regional

Both NWG and ONB operate in Banks - Regional, which has 329 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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