Is MSBIP or MTB more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Midland States Bancorp, Inc. - (MSBIP) and M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MSBIP has a Quality of Company score of 7.5/10 while MTB scores 8.5/10.

Which is a better buy — MSBIP or MTB?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MSBIP and MTB valuations compare?

MSBIP at $25.44 and MTB at $214.31 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MSBIP vs MTB Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MSBIP

Banks - Regional

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. -

Quality

7.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$25.44

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

MTB

Banks - Regional

M&T Bank Corporation

Quality

8.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$214.31

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MSBIP Fair Value	MSBIP Upside	MTB Fair Value	MTB Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$23.78	-6.5%	$115.71	-46.0%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$89.73	+252.7%	$182.07	-15.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MSBIP vs MTB — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

MTB scores higher with a 8.5/10 quality rating vs MSBIP's 7.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Midland States Bancorp, Inc. - (MSBIP) and M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MSBIP currently trades at $25.44 with a QOC of 7.5/10, while MTB trades at $214.31 with a QOC of 8.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).