Is MCY or NODK more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Mercury General Corporation (MCY) and NI Holdings, Inc. (NODK) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MCY has a Quality of Company score of 9.6/10 while NODK scores 7.0/10.

Which is a better buy — MCY or NODK?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MCY and NODK valuations compare?

MCY at $96.53 and NODK at $14.06 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MCY vs NODK Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MCY

Insurance - Property & Casualty

Mercury General Corporation

Quality

9.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$96.53

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

NODK

Insurance - Property & Casualty

NI Holdings, Inc.

Quality

7.0

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$14.06

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MCY Fair Value	MCY Upside	NODK Fair Value	NODK Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$173.51	+79.8%	$1.87	-86.7%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$165.12	+71.1%	$4.37	-68.9%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MCY vs NODK — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

MCY scores higher with a 9.6/10 quality rating vs NODK's 7.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Mercury General Corporation (MCY) and NI Holdings, Inc. (NODK) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MCY currently trades at $96.53 with a QOC of 9.6/10, while NODK trades at $14.06 with a QOC of 7.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).