HBCP vs HFWA

Home Bancorp, Inc. vs Heritage Financial Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — HBCP scores higher on quality with 9.0/10 vs HFWA's 8.3/10. HBCP trades at $64.80 while HFWA trades at $27.42. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

HBCP

Banks - Regional
Home Bancorp, Inc.
Quality
9.0
out of 10
Value Trap
8
SAFE
Price
$64.80
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
VS

HFWA

Banks - Regional
Heritage Financial Corporation
Quality
8.3
out of 10
Value Trap
8
SAFE
Price
$27.42
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
HBCP
Earnings Power Value sees +8.7% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
HFWA
Quality Score 8.3/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

HBCP vs HFWA — Fair Value Comparison

HBCP
$0$28$55$83 Price$64.80 Bayesian …$51.15 (-21.1%) Earnings …$70.42 (+8.7%)
HFWA
$0$11$22$32 Price$27.42 Bayesian …$14.28 (-47.9%) Earnings …$20.79 (-24.2%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType HBCP Fair ValueHBCP Upside HFWA Fair ValueHFWA Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $51.15 -21.1% $14.28 -47.9%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $70.42 +8.7% $20.79 -24.2%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

HBCP vs HFWA — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

HBCP scores higher with a 9.0/10 quality rating vs HFWA's 8.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do HBCP and HFWA Valuations Compare?

At $64.80, HBCP trades +21.1% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $51.15, while HFWA at $27.42 trades +47.9% above its estimate of $14.28. HFWA shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: HBCP vs HFWA

HBCP earns a Quality of Company score of 9.0/10 compared to HFWA's 8.3/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: HBCP vs HFWA

HBCP carries a SAFE value trap risk (8/100) while HFWA shows SAFE risk (8/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Banks - Regional

Both HBCP and HFWA operate in Banks - Regional, which has 329 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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