GRAL vs ILMN

GRAIL, Inc. vs Illumina, Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — ILMN scores higher on quality with 8.4/10 vs GRAL's 7.0/10. GRAL trades at $59.90 while ILMN trades at $162.55. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

GRAL

Diagnostics & Research
GRAIL, Inc.
Quality
7.0
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$59.90
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

ILMN

Diagnostics & Research
Illumina, Inc.
Quality
8.4
out of 10
Value Trap
18
SAFE
Price
$162.55
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
GRAL
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models
ILMN
Quality Score 8.4/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

GRAL vs ILMN — Fair Value Comparison

GRAL
$0$24$47$71 Price$59.90 Bayesian …$17.83 (-70.2%) Earnings …$34.28 (-37.0%)
ILMN
$0$64$128$192 Price$162.55 Bayesian …$51.93 (-68.1%) Earnings …$128.98 (-20.6%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType GRAL Fair ValueGRAL Upside ILMN Fair ValueILMN Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $17.83 -70.2% $51.93 -68.1%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $34.28 -37.0% $128.98 -20.6%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

GRAL vs ILMN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

ILMN scores higher with a 8.4/10 quality rating vs GRAL's 7.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do GRAL and ILMN Valuations Compare?

At $59.90, GRAL trades +70.2% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $17.83, while ILMN at $162.55 trades +68.1% above its estimate of $51.93. GRAL shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: GRAL vs ILMN

GRAL earns a Quality of Company score of 7.0/10 compared to ILMN's 8.4/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: GRAL vs ILMN

GRAL carries a SAFE value trap risk (6/100) while ILMN shows SAFE risk (18/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Diagnostics & Research

Both GRAL and ILMN operate in Diagnostics & Research, which has 48 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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