Is GPRE or ORGN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE) and Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. GPRE has a Quality of Company score of 6.4/10 while ORGN scores 5.1/10.

Which is a better buy — GPRE or ORGN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do GPRE and ORGN valuations compare?

GPRE at $15.81 and ORGN at $1.51 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

GPRE vs ORGN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

GPRE

Chemicals

Green Plains, Inc.

Quality

6.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$15.81

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

ORGN

Chemicals

Origin Materials, Inc.

Quality

5.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$1.51

Last close

Models

6/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	GPRE Fair Value	GPRE Upside	ORGN Fair Value	ORGN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$10.36	-34.5%	$0.94	-37.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$8.69	-51.1%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$20.85	+31.9%	$7.63	+405.4%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for GPRE vs ORGN — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

GPRE vs ORGN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

GPRE scores higher with a 6.4/10 quality rating vs ORGN's 5.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE) and Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

GPRE currently trades at $15.81 with a QOC of 6.4/10, while ORGN trades at $1.51 with a QOC of 5.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).