FNWD vs FRME

Finward Bancorp vs First Merchants Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — FRME scores higher on quality with 8.4/10 vs FNWD's 6.6/10. FNWD trades at $32.62 while FRME trades at $40.15. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

FNWD

Banks - Regional
Finward Bancorp
Quality
6.6
out of 10
Value Trap
27
LOW
Price
$32.62
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
VS

FRME

Banks - Regional
First Merchants Corporation
Quality
8.4
out of 10
Value Trap
20
SAFE
Price
$40.15
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
FNWD
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models
FRME
Quality Score 8.4/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

FNWD vs FRME — Fair Value Comparison

FNWD
$0$13$26$38 Price$32.62 Bayesian …$21.93 (-32.8%) Earnings …$29.59 (-9.3%)
FRME
$0$16$32$47 Price$40.15 Bayesian …$23.19 (-42.2%) Earnings …$34.89 (-13.1%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType FNWD Fair ValueFNWD Upside FRME Fair ValueFRME Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $21.93 -32.8% $23.19 -42.2%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $29.59 -9.3% $34.89 -13.1%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

FNWD vs FRME — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

FRME scores higher with a 8.4/10 quality rating vs FNWD's 6.6/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do FNWD and FRME Valuations Compare?

At $32.62, FNWD trades +32.8% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $21.93, while FRME at $40.15 trades +42.2% above its estimate of $23.19. FRME shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: FNWD vs FRME

FNWD earns a Quality of Company score of 6.6/10 compared to FRME's 8.4/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: FNWD vs FRME

FNWD carries a LOW value trap risk (27/100) while FRME shows SAFE risk (20/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Banks - Regional

Both FNWD and FRME operate in Banks - Regional, which has 329 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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