BFST vs BMRC

Business First Bancshares, Inc. vs Bank of Marin Bancorp — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — BFST scores higher on quality with 9.7/10 vs BMRC's 7.1/10. BFST trades at $28.15 while BMRC trades at $25.75. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

BFST

Banks - Regional
Business First Bancshares, Inc.
Quality
9.7
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$28.15
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
VS

BMRC

Banks - Regional
Bank of Marin Bancorp
Quality
7.1
out of 10
Value Trap
12
SAFE
Price
$25.75
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
BFST
Earnings Power Value sees +36.4% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
BMRC
Earnings Power Value sees +21.9% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models

BFST vs BMRC — Fair Value Comparison

BFST
$0$15$30$45 Price$28.15 Bayesian …$29.97 (+6.5%) Earnings …$38.39 (+36.4%)
BMRC
$0$12$25$37 Price$25.75 Bayesian …$21.13 (-17.9%) Earnings …$31.39 (+21.9%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType BFST Fair ValueBFST Upside BMRC Fair ValueBMRC Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $29.97 +6.5% $21.13 -17.9%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $38.39 +36.4% $31.39 +21.9%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

BFST vs BMRC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

BFST scores higher with a 9.7/10 quality rating vs BMRC's 7.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do BFST and BMRC Valuations Compare?

At $28.15, BFST trades +6.5% below its Bayesian DCF fair value of $29.97, while BMRC at $25.75 trades +17.9% above its estimate of $21.13. BMRC shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: BFST vs BMRC

BFST earns a Quality of Company score of 9.7/10 compared to BMRC's 7.1/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: BFST vs BMRC

Review the value trap analysis for both BFST and BMRC to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Banks - Regional

Both BFST and BMRC operate in Banks - Regional, which has 329 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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